US Tariffs on Indian Exports 2026: From 50% to 10%, and the July Cliff

Two instruments produced the 50% peak. Executive Order 14257 (02.04.2025, 90 FR 15041) created the country-specific "reciprocal" tariff under IEEPA; Executive Order 14326 of 31 July 2025 (90 FR 37963) reset India's rate to 25%, effective 7 August 2025. Executive Order 14329 (06.08.2025, 90 FR 38701) then added an additional 25% duty on articles of India tied to India's imports of Russian oil, effective 27 August 2025 under HTSUS headings 9903.01.84–89. Stacked, most Indian-origin goods faced 50% above MFN; Section 232 goods followed their own regime, carved out of the reciprocal tariff.

The US-India Joint Statement of 6 February 2026 announced a settlement shape: a reciprocal rate lowered to 18% for Indian goods, a preferential tariff-rate quota for Indian auto parts under the Section 232 autos framework (Proclamation 9888 lineage), removals for pharmaceuticals, gems and aircraft parts, and an Indian intention to purchase $500 billion of US energy, aircraft and technology products over five years. The same day, Executive Order 14384 (91 FR 6501) terminated the Russia-oil 25% for entries from 7 February 2026 — recording India's commitment to stop importing Russian oil, and carrying an explicit snap-back: officials monitor, and may recommend reimposing the 25% if India resumes.

The 18%, however, never became the collected rate. On 20 February 2026, the Supreme Court held in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump (No. 24-1287) that IEEPA does not authorise tariffs — the power to "regulate … importation" does not include the power to tax. The reciprocal tariff fell in its entirety; CBP announced it would stop assessing IEEPA duties (CSMS 67834313) and later stood up the CAPE programme for refunds, whose scope for older liquidated entries remains in litigation.

Four days after the judgment, Proclamation 11012 (20.02.2026, published 25.02.2026) imposed a 10% ad valorem import surcharge under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 — the balance-of-payments authority — effective 24 February 2026. Section 122 carries its own limits: a maximum 15% rate and a maximum 150 days "unless such period is extended by Act of Congress." The 150th day is 24 July 2026. The proclamation also settles stacking: the surcharge "shall not apply in addition to tariffs imposed under section 232." The Court of International Trade held the surcharge unlawful on 7 May 2026 (Oregon v. United States / Burlap and Barrel, Inc. v. Trump, Slip Op. 26-47), limiting relief to the plaintiffs; the Federal Circuit stayed that ruling on 11 June 2026, so the 10% is being collected as of this writing, pending appeal and the statutory expiry — whichever arrives first.

Which duty a given Indian shipment paid is now a function of its entry date and tariff line, across five regimes in eleven months: pre-August 2025, the 50% window (27.08.2025–06.02.2026 for non-232 goods), the two-week interregnum to 20.02.2026, the Section 122 window (24.02–24.07.2026), and whatever follows the cliff — where the statutory default is reversion toward MFN for non-232 goods, and a successor instrument is already drafted: USTR's Section 301 forced-labour determinations of 2 June 2026 propose an additional 12.5% tariff on 46 economies including India (10% on 14 others), positioned to follow the expiry after the July 2026 comment period, while a congressional bill (the Reclaim Trade Powers Act) proposes repealing Section 122 outright. Duty planning, refund eligibility under CAPE, and landed-cost reconciliation all key off that date-and-line matrix; the declaration discipline that fixes the line is the same one that governs the Indian side of the filing, per the ICEGATE error-code reference. TradeWatch tracks the applicable-instrument matrix per shipment as part of its readiness intelligence — dates, lines and the instrument in force, each cited to the Federal Register document it derives from.